South Africa’s corn crop in marketing year 2023/24 has been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected drop of more than 15 percent in crop volume. The drought is also impacting other countries in Southern Africa creating a bullish outlook on local corn prices that will trigger an expansion in the area to be planted with corn for marketing year 2024/25. While South Africa is expected to remain a net exporter of corn in MY 2024/25, wheat imports could rise in marketing year 2024/25 on higher expected exports. South Africa’s wheat production is estimated to flatten, while a greater demand for wheat in Southern Africa is likely due to the regional drought. South Africa’s rice imports are estimated to flatten as local demand is restricted. Consumer spending is under pressure due to relatively high inflation and interest rates, and an elevated unemployment rate.
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